PSYCHOLOGY 7536: HEURISTICS AND BIASES IN INTUTIVE JUDGMENT
Meeting location: Institute for Cognitive Science (4th floor Muenzinger, D428)
Class 1, 12 Jan, Introduction and organization
No class, 19 Jan, SPSP
Class 2, 24 Jan, Availability (Joanne & Michaela)
Tverksy, A., & Kahneman, D. (1973). Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability. Cognitive Psychology, 4, 207-232.
Ross, M., Sicoly, F. (1979). Egocentric biases in availability and attribution. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 37, 322-336.
Schwarz, N., & Vaughn, L. A. The availability heuristic revisited: Ease of recall and content of recall as distinct sources. GGK.
Oppenheimer, D. (2003). Spontaneous discounting of availability in frequency judgment tasks. Psychological Science, 15, 100-105.
Class 3, 31 Jan, Representativeness (Dave)
Tverksy, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletin, 2, 105-110.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430-454.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. Extensional vs. intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment. GGK
Kahneman, A., & Frederick, S. Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment. GGK
Class 4, 7 Feb, Anchoring (and adjustment) (Jordan)
Gilbert, D. T. Inferential correction. GGK.
Strack, F., & Mussweiler, T. (1997). Explaining the enigmatic anchoring effect: Mechanisms of selective accessibility. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 73, 437-446.
Trope, Y., & Gaunt, R. (2000). Processing alternative explanations of behavior: correction or integration? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 79, 344-354.
Epley, N., & Gilovich, T. Putting adjustment back in the anchoring and adjustment heuristic. GGK.
Class 5, 14 Feb, Affect (Michaela)
Slovic, et al. The affect heuristic. GGK.
Schawarz, N. Feelings as information: Moods influence judgments and processing strategies. GGK.
Forgas, J.P. (1998). On being happy but mistaken: Mood effects on the fundamental attribution error. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 318-331.
Tiedens, L. Z., & Linton, S. (2001). Judgment under emotional certainty and uncertainty: The effects of specific emotions on information processing. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 81, 973-988.
Class 6, 21 Feb, Judgmental myopia and focalism (Jordan)
Kruger, J., & Burrus, J. (2004). Egocentrism and focalism in unrealistic optimism (and pessimism). Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 40, 332-340.
Wilson, T. D., Wheatley, T., Meyers, J., Gilbert, D. T., & Axsom, D. (2000). Focalism: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 78, 821-836.
Moore, D. A., & Kim, T. G. (2003). Myopic social prediction and the solo comparison effect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85, 1121-1135.
Moore, D. A., & Small, D. A. (2005). Error and bias in comparative social judgment: On being both better and worse than we think we are. Unpublished manuscript, Carnegie Mellon University.
Class 7, 28 Feb, Recognition, fast and frugal (Greg)
Goldstein, D.G., & Gigerenzer, G. (2002). Models of ecological rationality: The recognition heuristic. Psychological Review, 109, 75-90.
Oppenheimer, D.M. (2003). Not so fast! (and not so frugal!): rethinking the recognition heuristic. Cognition, 90, B1-B9.
Gigerenzer, G. (1996). On narrow norms and vague heuristics: A reply to Kahneman and Tversky. Psychological Review, 103, 592–596.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1996). On the reality of cognitive illusions. Psychological Review, 103, 592–591.
Class 8, 7 Mar, Support Theory (Dave & Jen)
Rottenstreich, Y., & Tversky, A. Unpacking, repacking, and anchoring: Advances in Support Theory. GGK.
Tversky, A,. & Koehler, D. J. Support Theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability. GGK.
Brenner, L. A., Koehler, D. J., & Rottenstreich. Remarks on Support Theory: Recent advances and future directions. GGK.
Savitsky, K. K., Van Boven, L., Epley, N., & Wight, W. (in press). The unpacking effect in allocations of responsibility for group tasks. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology.
Class 9,14 Mar, Counterfactual thinking and regret (Laurie)
Kahneman, D., & Miller, D. T. Norm Theory: Comparing reality to its alternatives. GGK.
Medvec, V. H., Maday, S. F., & Gilovich. T. When less is more: Counterfactual thinking and satisfaction among Olympic medalists. GGK.
McGraw, A. P., Mellers, B., & Tetlock, P. (in press). Expectations and emotions of Olympic athletes. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology.
Kruger, J., Wirtz, D., & Miller, D.T. (in press). Counterfactual thinking and the first instinct fallacy. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.
Class 10, 28 Mar, Affective forecasting (Joanne & Laurie)
Gilbert, et al. Durability bias in affective forecasting. GGK.
Loewenstein, G. (1996). Out of control: Visceral influences on behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 65, 272–292.
Hsee, C.K., & Zhang, J. (2004). Distinction bias: Misprediction and mischoice due to joint evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 86, 680-695.
Van Boven, L., & Kane, J. (in press). Predicting feelings versus choices. In E. C. Chang & L. J. Sanna (Eds.), Judgment over time: The interplay of thoughts, feelings, and behaviors.
Class 11, 4 Apr, Debiasing and expertise (Amanda & Jo)
Phillips, J. K., Klein, G., Seick, W. R. (2004). Expertise in judgment and decision making: A case for training intuitive decision skills. In D. K. Koehler and N. Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (pp. 297-315). New York: Blackwell Publishing.
Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., & Brekke, N. Mental contamination and the debiasing problem. GGK.
Larrick, R. P. (2004). Debiasing. In D. K. Koehler and N. Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (pp. 316-337). New York: Blackwell Publishing.
Dawes, R. M., Faust, D., & Meehl, P. E. Clinical versus actuarial judgment. GGK.
Class 12, 11 Apr, Confidence (Greg)
Gill, M. J., Swann, W.B., Silvera, D. H. (1998). On the genesis of confidence. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 75, 1101–1114.
Griffin, D., & Tverksy, A. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. GGK, pp. 230–249.
Griffin, D., Dunning, D., & Ross, L. (1990). The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 56, 1128-1139.
McGraw, A. Peter, Mellers, Barbara, & Ritov, Ilana (2004). The affective costs of overconfidence. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 17, 281-295.
Class 13, 18 Apr, Egocentrism (Jo)
Epley, N., Keysar, B., Van Boven, L., & Gilovich, T. (2004). Perspective taking as egocentric anchoring and adjustment. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 87, 327–339.
Van Boven, L., Loewenstein, G., & Dunning, D. (in press). The illusion of courage in social-predictions: Underestimating the impact of fear of embarrassment on other people. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes.
Karniol, R. (2003). Egocentrism versus protocentrism: The status of self in social prediction. Psychological Review, 110, 564–580.
Ames, D. (2004). Inside the mind-reader’s toolkit: Projection and stereotyping in mental state inference. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 87, 340-353.
Class 14, 25 Apr, Self-insight and perceptions of bias (Amanda & Jen)
Pronin, E., Gilovich, T., & Ross, L. (2004). Objectivity in the eye of the beholder: Divergent perceptions of bias in self versus others. Psychological Review, 3, 781–799.
Van Boven, L., White, K., Kamada, A., & Gilovich, T. (2003). Intuitions about situational correction in self and others. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 85, 249–258.
Taylor, S. E., & Armor, D. A. When predictions fail: The dilemma of unrealistic optimism. GGK.
Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77, 1121-1134.